Covid-19 Heat Resistance

[WIMUSKY]

Neither of these statements are true. If you're going to conspiracy theory, back up your statements. A paper came out within the last few days that corona is actually resilient as an aerosol for at least a day, which means that whole 6ft thing isn't adequate.

Ok, back your statement. What's this so called "paper" you're referencing?

Speck backed his up with a PA official.

 

[nola mike]

Ok, back your statement. What's this so called "paper" you're referencing?

Speck backed his up with a PA official.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063784v1.article-info

Saying "some dude told me something" isn't science, isn't proof. Here's how deaths are classified in Virginia, the same as they always have been. This is from the VDH:
"Deaths caused by COVID-19 in Virginia are natural deaths; and it is the professional responsibility of the physician caring for the patient to complete the death certificate (32.1- 263), preferably through the Electronic Death Registration System. This is true whether the patient died in a medical care facility or at home. The death certificate is necessary to provide legal documentation of the death and to allow for legal resolution of many issues involving the end of life. For capturing COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) deaths, all lab-confirmed fatalities due to COVID-19 should specifically list COVID-19 as the primary cause of death (line A). Deaths suspected of being due to COVID-19 without lab confirmation should cite “presumed” or “probable” COVID-19 on the death certificate. Many COVID-19 fatalities have comorbidities, and those comorbid conditions can be listed as contributing factors to the death (Part II). Additional information can be found atwww.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf "

I imagine it's similar in other states. I truly don't understand why people are trying to make a conspiracy and think that people who have been doing this for their entire lives are somehow out to fool them. This is real, and as much as I like people to be able to make their own choices and live with their own stupidity, this unfortunately impacts everybody.

 

[levittownnick]

Can I retract the initial question about heat?
Nick

 

[aspeck]

Can I retract the initial question about heat?
Nick

You may, but what fun would that be?:behindsofa:

 

[MRS]

opcorn: Don't stop now :topsy_turvy:

 

[redneck joe]

ok folks, since no one asked me for them, here are my thoughts.

First, I use worldometers as my data source.

https://www.worldometers.info/



Plus for the rona specific info

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/





acris, I really don't look at the death rate as it relates to the 'known outcome' number. Not all cases will be tracked to a conclusion, save for deaths. So to me that is artificially high of a percentage.


I'm looking at death rates as a percent to population, not just of what is being attributed to the rona. That will negate the argument over the purported massaging of the numbers by anyone to get more money from the government or whatever tin foil theory is out there.


Crude death rate is deaths over a period of time for every 1000 population.

Deaths / population * 1000


The world average for 2019 is 7.1 to 7.6 depending on what data source you use - numbers are revised as new info becomes avail as in most all statistics.


So i took todays snapshot and calculated using the above math but added at the end a multiplier of 3.25 to get a full year number, as that is what crude death rate is based on, not a snapshot. I used 3.25 as we are almost done with April. If I had saved my math from 1 April, I used a multiplier of 4, and there are four quarters in a year. At the end of April, you can use a multiplier of 3 as there then will be three trimesters in a year. So on. This multiplier was added to both death and YTD population growth.


Current death rate globally is 7.6 which is on par of course with average, but using the multiplier for a full year puts the toll at 7.6 as well.

Couple things I know is that less people die during the summer and more do during the winter. I'm thinking my 'joe math' averages that out.

What I haven't done is to test and projection of the math to any specific countries - ones that we can have a modicum of trust in the data. That might show a different story - especially in hard hit countries like Italy and Spain.






Additional thoughts - the number of infected people is an order of magnitude higher than we know of. Zero of the people I know have been tested and if you are relatively healthy it is becoming clear that you may be asymptomatic. As stated earlier in this thread I use 10 as my multiplier on the math for death by covid.

Also note that the number of 'serious' cases was floating between 4-6%, usually at 5% and now it is down to three as we get more testing done.

It is serious for old and unhealthy people just like the flu but what appears to be the case *imo* is that is is more virulent in its ability to spread so cases ramp up more quickly thus overwhelming medical resources.


Lastly I think at the end of the day it will be not much worse than a flue death rate and as with that there will be the sad stories of an otherwise healthy person, kid, baby whatever dying form it but overall about the same.



*pps - read up on Sweden as compared to the other Nordic countries. Perfect case study unfolding there. My sister lives in Denmark and was in Italy early feb for a week, came home sick. Mild symptoms just thought is was from partying too much and never went to the doc so we'll never know.

 

[JimS123]

Plus for the rona specific info

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

acris, I really don't look at the death rate as it relates to the 'known outcome' number. Not all cases will be tracked to a conclusion, save for deaths. So to me that is artificially high of a percentage.

Additional thoughts - the number of infected people is an order of magnitude higher than we know of. Zero of the people I know have been tested and if you are relatively healthy it is becoming clear that you may be asymptomatic. As stated earlier in this thread I use 10 as my multiplier on the math for death by covid.

Excellent writeup.

Using worldometer data it suggests that the death rate is 5.6% The key takeaway from above is that we really don't know the denominator of the equation.

NY State just began massive testing of all New Yorkers. Based in the initial random sampling it showed that 13.9% of the State had antibodies, which would indicate that a huge number of people had the virus but didn't know it. The initial calculations show a death rate of 0.5%.

Off by a factor of ten you say. In other words, 10 times more people were sick and didn't know it. Boy, now that's a really screwed up denominator!

And yes, of course its only a small sampling. We'll just have to wait and see how it pans out.

 

[sphelps]

RNJ , statistician and gourmet cook ! :joyous:

 

[GA_Boater]

RNJ , statistician and gourmet cook ! :joyous:

Don't forget plumber building furniture or woodworker doing plumbing. One of the two. :wink:

 

[nola mike]

Excellent writeup.

Using worldometer data it suggests that the death rate is 5.6% The key takeaway from above is that we really don't know the denominator of the equation.

NY State just began massive testing of all New Yorkers. Based in the initial random sampling it showed that 13.9% of the State had antibodies, which would indicate that a huge number of people had the virus but didn't know it. The initial calculations show a death rate of 0.5%.

Off by a factor of ten you say. In other words, 10 times more people were sick and didn't know it. Boy, now that's a really screwed up denominator!

And yes, of course its only a small sampling. We'll just have to wait and see how it pans out.

Absolutely need better numbers. Any assumptions can easily put you off by an order of magnitude. However, even if you assume a lower number (0.5%), that's still 5x higher than the flu. Given a lack of a vaccine, lack of herd immunity, and lack of any partial immunity conferred by prior flu exposure, the penetrance of corona will be higher than the flu. Numbers I've seen range from 50-70% of the population is expected to contract it. Using both of those conservative numbers, you're looking at 750,000 deaths in the US from this. That's a lot.

 

[Old Ironmaker]

Well idk about heat killing the virus but I do know it’s been killing me . Hot and very humid today .. :sorrow:

I woke up this morning and there was an inch of ice and snow on the deck. It's about 29F now. Don't ask me what that is in Celsius. I do know zero C is freezing cold.

All I know about stats is 2 groups of people use them, the talking heads on radio on TV and statisticians. For you stat guys what is the percentage of fake stats surrounding Covid-19?

 

[achris]

I woke up this morning and there was an inch of ice and snow on the deck. It's about 29F now. Don't ask me what that is in Celsius. I do know zero C is freezing cold.

If you want to change from F to C, take your F number, knock 30 off it, and halve the result. That gives you an acceptably close enough number. So, your 29F would be about -0.5C. The exact conversion is -1.667C. If it was 90F, then the less 30 is 60, half that is 30C. Exact is 32.2C.. See, close enough. Knock 30 off, half the result.

All I know about stats is 2 groups of people use them, the talking heads on radio on TV and statisticians. For you stat guys what is the percentage of fake stats surrounding Covid-19?

95%, mostly by people who are just for their 15 minutes of fame.

You guys equating death rate to total population? That will only ever be accurate when the ENTIRE population has had the virus. Until then, the only way you can extrapolate any predictions is deaths vs people who have HAD the virus. Even people WITH the virus can't be counted as their ultimate fate is still unknown.

USA death rate is still at 37%! Last week the CDC even tried to change the way deaths and infection rates were reported, and guess what, the numbers didn't change... If the entire population of the USA gets infected, and reopening business and going back to a pre-covid19 way of life (as all the moron protesters are demanding :facepalm before the virus is properly dealt with is pretty much a surefire way of guaranteeing that, then expect the death rate to be AT LEAST 20%... There is NO other way you can calculate it.

(I really would love to see how people are coming up with 5.6%, or is that just a number pulled out of someone's 'hat'.... Total fabrication! Not even based on any statistics.)

And even at 5.6%, that's more than 18 MILLION dead in the USA alone! Worldwide, that would be 430 million... I think I'll buy shares in funeral homes and cemetaries.

 

[sphelps]

At some point we have to get folks back to work .. We can do it and do it as safely as possible ..
In my opinion the restaurants / bars ect are gunna be the biggest problem .
Our freedom is what defines our country . And hopefully always will ...Hiding from problems is just not the American way of thinking ...its not in our DNA .. The moron masses will get it done .. They always do ...

 

[JimS123]

If you want to change from F to C, take your F number, knock 30 off it, and halve the result. That gives you an acceptably close enough number. So, your 29F would be about -0.5C. The exact conversion is -1.667C. If it was 90F, then the less 30 is 60, half that is 30C. Exact is 32.2C.. See, close enough. Knock 30 off, half the result.



95%, mostly by people who are just for their 15 minutes of fame.

You guys equating death rate to total population? That will only ever be accurate when the ENTIRE population has had the virus. Until then, the only way you can extrapolate any predictions is deaths vs people who have HAD the virus. Even people WITH the virus can't be counted as their ultimate fate is still unknown.

USA death rate is still at 37%! Last week the CDC even tried to change the way deaths and infection rates were reported, and guess what, the numbers didn't change... If the entire population of the USA gets infected, and reopening business and going back to a pre-covid19 way of life (as all the moron protesters are demanding :facepalm before the virus is properly dealt with is pretty much a surefire way of guaranteeing that, then expect the death rate to be AT LEAST 20%... There is NO other way you can calculate it.

(I really would love to see how people are coming up with 5.6%, or is that just a number pulled out of someone's 'hat'.... Total fabrication! Not even based on any statistics.)

And even at 5.6%, that's more than 18 MILLION dead in the USA alone! Worldwide, that would be 430 million... I think I'll buy shares in funeral homes and cemetaries.

I would respectfully suggest that your calculations are totally confused. There are ways of calculating statistics. Some numbers that can be used include total deaths period, total deaths from Covid-19, total population period, total population tested positive for Covid-19, and whatever theoretical number that someone in the news media came up with.

Right now total deaths divided by total infected is 5.6%. Those are published numbers. That's why the 18,000,000 figure is wrong because it didn't happen. Furthermore, the 37% number is totally laughable. No matter what numbers anybody uses, nothing computes to 37%.

I admit I'm rusty in Statistics, Six Sigma, Statistical Process Control, etc. Maybe I'll dig out my old University books and refresh my memory.

 

[bruceb58]

I'm right there with ya Art.....

There are actually likely way more deaths than even reported since they are now going back and seeing there were deaths in CA that predated Washington's.

Of course if you listen to a certain person at the White House briefings, all we need to do is get disinfectant into our bodies along with UV light LOL. What are we supposed to do? Poke holes in our body to get the UV light in?

Lysol had to come out with a statement today not to drink their products.

 

[Old Ironmaker]

If you want to change from F to C, take your F number, knock 30 off it, and halve the result. That gives you an acceptably close enough number. So, your 29F would be about -0.5C. The exact conversion is -1.667C. If it was 90F, then the less 30 is 60, half that is 30C. Exact is 32.2C.. See, close enough. Knock 30 off, half the result.



95%, mostly by people who are just for their 15 minutes of fame.

You guys equating death rate to total population? That will only ever be accurate when the ENTIRE population has had the virus. Until then, the only way you can extrapolate any predictions is deaths vs people who have HAD the virus. Even people WITH the virus can't be counted as their ultimate fate is still unknown.

USA death rate is still at 37%! Last week the CDC even tried to change the way deaths and infection rates were reported, and guess what, the numbers didn't change... If the entire population of the USA gets infected, and reopening business and going back to a pre-covid19 way of life (as all the moron protesters are demanding :facepalm before the virus is properly dealt with is pretty much a surefire way of guaranteeing that, then expect the death rate to be AT LEAST 20%... There is NO other way you can calculate it.

(I really would love to see how people are coming up with 5.6%, or is that just a number pulled out of someone's 'hat'.... Total fabrication! Not even based on any statistics.)

And even at 5.6%, that's more than 18 MILLION dead in the USA alone! Worldwide, that would be 430 million... I think I'll buy shares in funeral homes and cemetaries.

I asked a rhetorical question and got more stats. That's exactly what we need, more stats.

 

[Old Ironmaker]

Can I retract the initial question about heat?
Nick

No. "Hey look! A can of worms, let's open it and see what happens."

 

[bruceb58]

According to yesterday's White House briefing, maybe we need these:

 

[sam60]

According to yesterday's White House briefing, maybe we need these:

So, I drilled all of these holes in my body for nothing? Who should be at the news conferences instead ? The Clorox actually tastes pretty clean!

 

[The Force power]

If you want to change from F to C, take your F number, knock 30 off it, and halve the result. That gives you an acceptably close enough number. So, your 29F would be about -0.5C. The exact conversion is -1.667C. If it was 90F, then the less 30 is 60, half that is 30C. Exact is 32.2C.. See, close enough. Knock 30 off, half the result.

That may somewhat work in those ranges but not at -40 Celsius or Fahrenheit :canada::canada: