Covid-19 Heat Resistance

[sphelps]

Proud . No . Lucky more like it ... In some cases it probably could have been a lot worse ..

 

[GA_Boater]

Luck has nothing to do with this thing. It is worldwide lack of preparation. It's not like the last worldwide epidemic/pandemic occurred in 1917/18.

 

[achris]

The death rate I'm quoting (from your very own CDC) is of 'closed' cases. Yes you have 764,300 total case, but only 111,500 of those are 'closed' (recovered or died). The other 652,800 are still 'in the balance'. You can't take the number of deaths against the total number of cases to get your expected death rate. You can only take the number of CLOSED cases against the death rate, and that number is 36%.

At the current rate, if the country starts opening businesses and interstate travel, by the time every person is infected, and yes, every person WILL get infected, you'd be saying goodbye to over 100 million of your countrymen!

Australia's death rate for closed cases is just 1.65% (6,600 cases in total, 2,300 still open, 4,300 'closed', 71 dead)... How did we achieve that? By closing everything down. South Korea did a very similar thing, and their death rate is similar to that of Australia. The UK and the USA followed similar strategies to each other, and they have similar horrific numbers.

 

[GA_Boater]

It's funny how numbers are counted in different ways. Damned statisticians!

 

[sphelps]

Hang on a minute .. My understanding is the infected number to death ratio .. Counting closed cases ,to me , just doesn't make much sense .. Heck you aren't even factoring in the number of folks who have it and not know .. Which would be impossible .. To say it has a 36% death rate in the US is just not correct ..

The population of Australia is 25,439,164
The population of the US is 330,624,164

Its a lot easier to shut down a smaller number of people I would think ..Just thinking ...

 

[achris]

Hang on a minute .. My understanding is the infected number to death ratio .. Counting closed cases ,to me , just doesn't make much sense ...

It's the only way to read the numbers. How can you calculate a death rate if you include people whom you don't know if they'll live or die. THAT is the one that doesn't make sense...

Of the people who got the disease and no longer have it, 36% died! Only 64% of the people who got covid19 survived it!

 

[nola mike]

These numbers are meaningless (except for actual deaths). We still have no idea of the true prevalence of the disease because of a lack of testing. So we can't calculate the actual fatality rate. No denominator.

 

[GA_Boater]

Live or die, we know how many are diagnosed. What we don't know is how many got it and got over it with no diagnosis because of #1, lack of testing and #2, still no verifiable test to tell if a person had it. There are reports of diagnosed survivors getting it a second time, so the antibody tests may not really tell us anything.

Of the people who got the disease and no longer have it, 36% died!

Why are 36% of survivors buried? I would think 100% didn't die if they got over it.

 

[dolluper]

Hi guys l can tell you heat doesn't kill this covid virus ...l had it 3 weeks down chills hot spills headaches body aches hard to breath lots of mucus spitting up ....if all it took was a sauna the world would be a better place....Anyways as you were saying if you know what your doing you will grab the right wrench whether metric or standard if not bring a tool box with you lol

 

[achris]

Live or die, we know how many are diagnosed. What we don't know is how many got it and got over it with no diagnosis because of #1, lack of testing and #2, still no verifiable test to tell if a person had it. There are reports of diagnosed survivors getting it a second time, so the antibody tests may not really tell us anything.

Of the people who got the disease and no longer have it, 36% died!

Why are 36% of survivors buried? I would think 100% didn't die if they got over it.

Where did I say 36% of survivors died? I said. "of the people that no longer have the disease". That includes people who died! The dead are part of the 'no longer have the disease' group!

Geez Louise, it's simple statistical analysis, why is it so hard to grasp?

Maybe it's the fact that SO MANY people are GOING to died that scares you, and you're trying to 'statistics are lies' way yourself into thinking 'it'll all be ok if I don't think about it too much'....

This is it in a nutshell. If you live in the USA and you get covid19, based on current figures, you have a 1 in 3 chance of not surviving... And yes I know all the arguments about people who have been asymptomatic, and the ones who've died at home, never having been diagnosed, all we have are the figures as presented. You could make up any numbers you like if you base everything on 'what if', I'm basing my numbers on reported facts....

Here's are those number in an easier to read format.....

 

[nola mike]

'....

This is it in a nutshell. If you live in the USA and you get covid19, based on current figures, you have a 1 in 3 chance of not surviving...

This is simply not true. You have to have been sick enough to have been tested 3 weeks ago. To ignore mild cases and then extrapolate a 30% fatality rate across the entire population is absurd. Probably more realistic to say that there's a 30% fatality rate once you're admitted to the ICU. Also, in order to say that there's a 30% rate in general you'd have to at least be testing a cohort matched for age, comorbidites, etc.

 

[redneck joe]

Until last few days I've been using the numbers for of cases times ten due to under testing.

 

[aspeck]

I asked a PA official why our number of cases continues to rise when I know of people who have recovered. I was answered, because most people tested positive never go to hospital for treatment so we have no way of knowing if they have recovered, so we leave everyone on the rolls. A follow up question was, “What determines a COVID-19 death?” The answer was if COVID-19 was present at time of death. So, I am asymptotic and die of a heart attack, I would get counted as a COVID death. The statisticians are skewing the numbers to generate fear.

As a first responders, this is serious and not to be taken lightly, but newer reports are beginning to indicate this is not as contagious as first thought. There needs to be a lot more learned about this virus.

 

[nola mike]

So, I am asymptotic and die of a heart attack, I would get counted as a COVID death. The statisticians are skewing the numbers to generate fear.

newer reports are beginning to indicate this is not as contagious as first thought. There needs to be a lot more learned about this virus.

Neither of these statements are true. If you're going to conspiracy theory, back up your statements. A paper came out within the last few days that corona is actually resilient as an aerosol for at least a day, which means that whole 6ft thing isn't adequate.

 

[sphelps]

So of the 764,265 folks that actually have the virus and recorded . Your gunna tell them that they have a 36% chance of dying ? That ,living in a country that has the undisputed best health care facilities in the world ? There would be total chaos probably ... Age and over all health of the patient is the determining factor on living and dying ...And that goes for every country on the planet ..

 

[JimS123]

I asked a PA official why our number of cases continues to rise when I know of people who have recovered. I was answered, because most people tested positive never go to hospital for treatment so we have no way of knowing if they have recovered, so we leave everyone on the rolls. A follow up question was, “What determines a COVID-19 death?” The answer was if COVID-19 was present at time of death. So, I am asymptotic and die of a heart attack, I would get counted as a COVID death. The statisticians are skewing the numbers to generate fear.

As a first responders, this is serious and not to be taken lightly, but newer reports are beginning to indicate this is not as contagious as first thought. There needs to be a lot more learned about this virus.

Large numbers of people die from pneumonia every year. Probably a lot of them were flu related. Covid-19 usually ends up in pneumonia. Thus, one would expect that this year the pneumonia deaths would have gone thru the roof.

Recently I saw statistical data for pneumonia deaths in the US for the past 10 years. The last few years had the highest, but not by a massive amount. The peak months were always the same.

For 2020 the peak month was once again the same, but the number of deaths was exactly HALF of previous years. We're talking a difference of tens of thousands.

So, were there people that would have died from pneumonia now classified as Corona? Did the flu not come about this year because Corona took its place? In all the confusion lately, do we have accurate numbers about anything?

 

[JimS123]

Geez Louise, it's simple statistical analysis, why is it so hard to grasp?

Three archers went deer hunting. A deer came by. One guy shot and missed 10 feet to the left. The second guy shot and missed 10 feet to the right. The 3rd guy (a statistician) took out his calculator and put in the data, and proclaimed "WE GOT HIM".

 

[BWR1953]

From the news this morning.

 

[sphelps]

Hmmmm that kind of explains the the Down Under rates ...
I hope this is the case so we can handle it like other seasonal flu’s ..
That would be good for everyone ...

 

[WIMUSKY]

I asked a PA official why our number of cases continues to rise when I know of people who have recovered. I was answered, because most people tested positive never go to hospital for treatment so we have no way of knowing if they have recovered, so we leave everyone on the rolls. A follow up question was, “What determines a COVID-19 death?” The answer was if COVID-19 was present at time of death. So, I am asymptotic and die of a heart attack, I would get counted as a COVID death. The statisticians are skewing the numbers to generate fear.

As a first responders, this is serious and not to be taken lightly, but newer reports are beginning to indicate this is not as contagious as first thought. There needs to be a lot more learned about this virus.

I'm right there with ya Art.....