News has the traffic in Tampa as "lighter than Christmas day"...... many business are shut down.
i'm down here too (Riverview) and the dude this morning spent most of all his reports on a surface street fender bender that was not causing and delays.
so only thing i did, early - like two weeks ago - was have amazon ship me a box of TP and PT because my first winter in the south I discovered the milk and bread thing is real and when i went to the store just needing enough for the weekend when we had the boys, they were out. As soon as I saw the reports of hoarding TP, i figured i'll get one extra.
Most everything we have in our house is a 2-4 week supply, double that if a true crisis and we need to conserve.
as far as the death rate, it is way over stated now simply because we do not have the accurate numerator for the math. Just don't. Like in economics, and in business in general you have leading (and trailing) indicators to gauge the current facts before empirical data can be gathered and analyse - like when the XX report form last quarter/month/year have been adjusted because all the data was in. So - since we have almost zero testing since this happened (and of course China, Russian, Iran etc are all full of sh.t on their reported cases) we have to use our brains. Which seems lacking at the moment, but i wont go there.
I've seen guesses at up to 50 times the number of known infections so lets go ultra conservative and say our infection rate is only 10 times the verified cases. Now, take that as your top line number and do the maths on the death rate (which is way more accurate than infection rate) and it is really not a huge deal. Yes, people will die. The bad part is this is new, and if not prepared (and we are not) the systems we rely on for this will get overloaded and as in Italy per the reports they have to make hard choices when the system becomes overwhelmed.
Since I'm talking testing, how many of us routinely get sick in the winter(ish) and go to the walk in for a flu test? Millions. That is why we KNOW the death rate of the flue. People get tested. This is not being tested.
final thought - look at the WHO stats for South Korea who arguably was the most prepared and quickest to react to this. There death rate (last I looked) was less than 0.7% and i'm sure that will go down.
final final thought. I've been buying stock on the way down with my fun money
Flying home tomorrow. Security should be easy, unless I decide to wear my new kilt.
so, until then - heading back out to the Bay
