What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

[rolmops]

I hear the war drums and the nation seems to be preparing for the next war.<br />Maybe it is time to take a step back and analyze the possible backlash and damage it can do to us.Weigh the pros and the cons and just think it over.<br />To bomb a country to kingdom come is one thing.<br />How it will effect us is another thing<br />My first thought is about what will happen to the world economy when we destroy the export capability of the world's 4th largest oil exporter.<br />Should we step away from the brink and first prepare our energy alternatives?Should we be the ones that build nuclear energy plants like never before?<br />Should we switch back to public transport in coal fired trains??<br />Or just in general,are we prepared to pay the price for changing the face of the earth by using nuclear devices?Will everybody scramble to build some to protect themselves from us?<br />These are questions,not opinions

 

[rodbolt]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

are we gonna bomb it for national intrest or national security?<br /> some posters seem to think the two are mutually exclusive but they are not always.<br />shutting down the Iranian fields would be a serious loss on the world market further fueling the cost of energy.<br /> so far there has been a lot of hoopla about a weapons program but not any evidence.<br />which is why I am against sanctions, if a jehova witnes showed up with a clup and a can of mace and tried to force a conversion ya most likly would shoot them, however if he showed up with some free movie pass's or something similar and a smile he may get invited inside for a chat.<br /> same principle applies here.<br /> if US techs are inside iranian nuke facilities we stand a better chance at good intel than if we are on the outside looking in.<br />thats what bit us in Iraq, with sanctions in place we lost all our intel and not much changed.<br />sanctions can cut both ways and anymore they seem to be less and less effective.<br />so they are valid questions, I just hope our leadership can deal with it.<br />my biggest worry is what will china and russia do if we decide to use nukes on their borders, both countries are very much involved with Iranian energy.<br /> they may retaliate or take control. either way it would be a US loss.

 

[heycods]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

Originally posted by rodbolt:<br /> <br />my biggest worry is what will china and russia do if we decide to use nukes on their borders, both countries are very much involved with Iranian energy.<br /> they may retaliate or take control. either way it would be a US loss.

Yep gotta agree with that

 

[scrapper]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

What Heycods said!

 

[Holdimhook]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

Good points.I'm still pretty undecided as to the distinction between national interests, national security, and the economic interest of a few. I'm not a troller as most of you know, not a conspiracy theorist or ultra- lib, and I DO support our troops. All I'm saying is, I didn't "drink the kool-aid" that Bush, Rummy, et. al. passed out in the Iraq effort, and I ain't about to drink it now until there's a LOT more evidence.

 

[JB]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

$100-$150 a bbl for sweet crude sure would do nice things for our domestic energy industry.<br /><br />Can you spell b i c y c l e ? How about rationing and car pools? Sounds a lot like WWII. We survived that. It would not be the end of the world.<br /><br />I usually trust my President to know things I don't know. I was briefly in the business of finding out that sort of stuff and I don't remember any of the stuff I helped find out being made public, even when it would have made a big difference in public opinion.<br /><br />I wonder why we (USA) think Iran is trying to make nuclear weapons? Do they know something up there in DC that they wont tell? <br /><br />Saddam did a bang-up job of making the whole world believe that he had WMD and was willing to use them. Fooled our intel guys, Israels' Mossad, Brit, French and German intel, too. His only mistake was that he thought it would make him immune to the agreements he made after the Gulf War.<br /><br />Is Iran up to the same (or some) sort of psychological games? Are we being fooled again?

 

[Haut Medoc]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

The one thing for sure is that they don't like us....<br />If they had the means, opportunity & thought that they could get away with it, I believe they would detonate a nuclear device.....JK

 

[Skinnywater]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

$100-$150 a bbl for sweet crude sure would do nice things for our domestic energy industry. Can you spell b i c y c l e ? How about rationing and car pools? Sounds a lot like WWII. We survived that. It would not be the end of the world.

Two things I love politically and professionally; long range planning and change that corrects failed or stagnate statis-quo. <br />Personally, I think I'm the toughest SOB on the block. I'd love to see US as a country prove how tough we really are to the rest of the world...again.....<br />But we won't, we'll take the easiest option, right or wrong, because that's who we've become.<br /><br />If we were to make such a commitment that JB suggests (but we won't). It would be a perfect time to incorporate some isolationist values into our policies.<br /><br />This country has been at war or preparing for war more often than not and it's about done running it's course.

 

[rolmops]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

I will try to play devil's advocate for one post.<br />I am Iran,I look to my southern borders and see nuclear Pakistan and American dominated Afganistan.I look across the Persian Gulf and see countries that are totally dominated by American power and the Aircraft carriers are docked right there.I look to my north and see Nuclear Israel on the horizon and American dominated Iraq and Jordan right next to me.<br />Looking east I see the Russians who are becoming stronger by the day and they too are nuclear.<br />Excuse me ,but I am worried.Maybe I should make myself some of those bombs, just in case.<br />Oh yes,we are Shi-ites,most of the Sunny moslem world would like to see us as their servants not their equals.<br /><br />This is probably some of what it looks like from the other end.

 

[bootle]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

Iran is an extremely conservative country, they do not openly start wars with their neighbors, Iran is most likely to use surrogates like Hizbulla to do their bidding.<br /><br />Iran may have the know-how to make a nuclear weapon, but they do not have the capability at the present time to manufacture such a device.<br /><br />With the employment of less than 200,000 centrifuges it will take the Iranians more than ten years to acquire the purity of uranium required to build a nuclear bomb.<br /><br />The uranium that has been processed thus far is at the low end of purity required for energy production, they will need a lot more than what they now have just to produce cost effective electricity.<br />The Iranian President is a loud mouth blow hard, his posturing is merely for domestic purposes, In the Iranian political system President Ahmadineajad does not have the authority to act militarily, the noises he makes pisses off Israel and the rest of the international community, Irans only benefit from such bellicose behaviour has been higher oil prices.<br />They are raking in hundreds of billions of dollars and euros.

 

[dtherrien]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

He who controls the middle east....or at least most of it, will control the world through energy.The corperate world along with its goverment will stop at nothing for profits.Everyone and everything is expendable.<br />What we are seeing is just the beginning. In the future, it will be all natural resourses.<br />Most of the worlds population is ranked as working poor....which it is. Some claim that the corperate world will have ownership to everything...land, water and air.

 

[dogsdad]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

Iran says Israel will be obliterated. Iran says it (Islam, that is, and it certainly appears that Iran presumes to speak for all Islam) will dominate the world. Iran says we can go tell Mommy (the useless UN) whatever we want, they don't care. These are things that I think the Iranians are being upfront about.<br /><br />Iran says it wants nuclear power to generate electricity. I don't believe that for a moment. Why would they want that when they have more petroleum than they could ever use? Why are they so recalcitrant when it comes to doing the enrichment elsewhere?<br /><br />I believe that Iran sees a window of opportunity to get a nuclear program on its feet and then proceed to blackmail the entire world and establish a theocratic world government. These people have no conscience as we would define it. I see no other choice than to take out all their nuclear facilities by whatever means necessary.

 

[18rabbit]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

Originally posted by dogsdad:<br /> Iran says Israel will be obliterated.

Help me to understand this; if Israel is gone tomorrow, why do I care? What is the significance of Israel, what does it offer to world as a whole?<br /><br />Put another way, what is Israel’s purpose, why does it even exist?

 

[Skinnywater]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

Help me to understand this; if Israel is gone tomorrow, why do I care? What is the significance of Israel, what does it offer to world as a whole?<br /><br />Put another way, what is Israel’s purpose, why does it even exist?

Maybe the most honest answer would be; Israel gives US a platform to stick our nose in the region. <br />A call to arms, money, lives and resources for "vital national interests" can be circumvented much easier while playing the morality card. <br />Another liberal concept.

 

[solidwaste]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

I dont think that the intel was wrong, about Iraq I mean..How is it that all the countrys intel were wrong? I think its more likely that the truth that people either have not heard or are unwillling to acept..Is that in the first few hours of the Iraq war the soviets that were in country help move all the wmd to Syrea. In return for Irag allowing the russians to stay in Iraq during both wars a deliberately target and try to shoot down our stealth bommbers..No that couldnt be possible, Yea and in no way did the russians have any fighter pilots in the air over N Korea during the Korean war..My only question to the Bush administration is why havent they been banging on this drum if they know it to be true..Or is the cheap oil were getting from russia a trade off for our silence? Lets face it no country except china has the monetary ability to wage war with us..War takes lots of $$$ and nobody can compete except china..So if Iran talks tough and wants nukes I say leave em alone Isreal will wipe them off the map and anyone else who want a piece of them in that region..Isreal is the regional control that is why they are important to us..As long as there the big dog on the block and were freinds with the big dog we win..

 

[bootle]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

Israel is there because Israel is there, it is what it is.<br />The same question can be asked of humans, why are we here? and what is our purpose of being here? we need the animal kingdom, the insect world and marine life in order for us to exist, those creatures certainly don't need us for their survival.<br /><br />It is what it is, make the best of it.

 

[bootle]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

"My only question to the Bush administration is why havent they been banging on this drum if they know it to be true.."<br /><br />Because it is not true.<br />except for russian and chinese pilots over korea.

 

[dogsdad]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

Regardless of how one might feel about how good a friend Israel is to America, the fact is that they are our strongest ally in the region, and they are a democracy. If we were to adopt a policy of ambivalence towards Israel, why would we not adopt a policy of ambivalence towards all our allies? We stand by our allies because if we don't, we will have no allies.

 

[ztim]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

For now, we can keep our Alaskan oil instead of selling it to Japan.

 

[solidwaste]

Re: What damage will we sustain if we shut off the Iranian oil flow?

wich part is not true? And why do you think so..Knowing now that the US have proof that the Russians were giving SADAM intel reports of our movements during the war.Because they had a mole in centcom over there dont think that Russia is in any way our friend..They are not our cold war enemy anymore only because they went bankrup and they couldnt hang..Dont be so nieve you think for one minute that if russia or anyone out there woundnt love to crack the steath youre living in a dream world. Stealth is our ace in the hole and the ability to track and target it would be absolutly priceless to our enemys..The enemy of my enemy is my friend..Ever notice that russia is such a great ally that it still to this day supports in any way it can any country that we dont get along with..