22-23mph would be awesome, but don't be too disappointed if it doesn't.
Keep in mind a lot of this set up is all about compromise. You're looking for a solution that will allow you to do everything you want reasonably well. If all you are looking for is top speed, your ability to pull a big guy on a tube is going to suck! Point being raising the engine is a great plan to get some performance, but it could also get you a cavitation problem in a hard turn or accelerating from a stop. If you change prop sizes and raise the engine all at once, if you have an issue you aren't going to know which is causing it! Baby steps......
Yep, all I really want is it setup correctly which it hasn't been for 6 years. Whatever it does when everything is correct is what it does......I just want it to give me what it's capable of which also in my opinion is best for longevity of the motor and reliability. This was my mother's boat, I just bought it from my dad this spring....he wouldn't let me do any changes prior to me buying it because he was in love with that dealer (he's gotten over that now).
I would say at the 16-17 it's running now these changes have to improve that so in my eyes no matter what the end result is after I do all this I'll be happy. Last night I took it to a buddies and raised the motor 2 spaces. That brings the fin above the cavitation plate up to the bottom of the transom....it was THAT low. Ideally I'm going to test it after that single change...plan was to do that this morning but it's raining (and of course I left the cover off of it)
As for pulling the guy on the tube.....If I want to go tubing (which I love to do) I'll get behind a boat meant to pull a tube.