Plugging in
1.64 gear ratio
13P prop
4500 RPM
Zero slip = 34 MPH
Add estimated 15% slip considering boat and load: 29 MPH
Changing pitch to 11:
27 MPH with same slip at 5000 if engine came up to that RPM
30 MPH with same slip if the engine were able to come up to 5500 RPM
I'd say that you would be doing your engine a favor by going to an 11" pitch and you wouldn't be loosing all that much speed. Question up for grabs here is that 5000 is probably achievable but really doubt 5500. If the boat had a flat transom, rather than a deep V which usually has "dead rise" at the transom, you have too much boat in the water (drag) to do much performing.
Your tach seems to be close enough to believe. Too many variables in boat shape, weight, this and that to pin it exactly with calculations.....only way you really know about any performance of any boat is to RUN IT!