LadyFish
Admiral
- Joined
- Mar 18, 2003
- Messages
- 6,894
The 2004 hurricane season is upon us June 1st through November.<br /><br />NOAAs 2004 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 50% probability of an above-normal hurricane season, a 40% probability of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC). <br /><br />The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 6-8 becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 of these becoming major hurricanes. These numbers reflect a predicted ACE index in the range of 100%-160% of the median, and indicate a likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.<br /><br />The predicted 2004 activity is based primarily on the ongoing active phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal signal, but also reflects expected warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea than can be accounted for by the multi-decadal signal alone. The outlook also reflects the likelihood that ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Niño or La Niña) will continue through August-October, the peak months of the hurricane season. An updated hurricane outlook will be issued in early August.<br /><br />An interesting graph.<br /> http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/figure4.gif <br /><br />2004 Storm Names<br /><br />Alex<br />Bonnie<br />Charley<br />Danielle<br />Earl<br />Frances<br />Gaston<br />Hermine<br />Ivan<br />Jeanne<br />Karl <br />Lisa <br />Matthew<br />Nicole <br />Otto <br />Paula <br />Richard <br />Shary <br />Tomas <br />Virginie<br />Walter <br /><br />Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms have been named from lists originated by the National Hurricane Center and now maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization . The lists featured only women's names until 1979, when men's and women's names were alternated. Six lists are used in rotation. Thus, the 2003 list will be used again in 2009.
