The Electoral College 2004

[jinx]

The Electoral College elects the President, not the popular vote. It is somewhat based on the population of the individual states, winner take all per state.<br /><br />Small population states get a bit of an advantage, because the minimum number of electoral votes is 3. Each state receives 1 electoral vote per Senator and 1 per Representative. For all of its' faults, the system keeps candidates from concentrating on the major markets.<br /><br />A breakdown of the votes is as follows, with some conservative prediction on my part on the ones not in contention:<br /><br />Alabama.....7....Bush <br />Alaska......3....Bush<br />Arizona.....10...?<br />Arkansas....6....leaning Bush<br />California..55...leaning Kerry<br />Colorado....9....?<br />Connecticat.7....Kerry<br />Delaware....3....?<br />DC..........3....Kerry<br />Florida.....27...?<br />Georgia.....15...leaning Bush<br />Hawaii......4....Kerry<br />Idaho.......4....Bush<br />Illinois....21...leaning Kerry<br />Indiana.....11...Bush<br />Iowa........7....?<br />Kansas......6....Bush<br />Kentucky....8....leaning Bush<br />Louisiana...9....?<br />Maine.......4....?<br />Maryland....10...Kerry<br />Massachusetts.12.Kerry<br />Michigan....17...?<br />Minnesota...10...?<br />Mississippi.6....leaning Bush<br />Missouri....11...?<br />Montana.....3....Bush<br />Nebraska....5....?<br />Nevada......5....?<br />New Hampshre.4...?<br />New Jersey..15...leaning Kerry<br />New Mexico..5....leaning Kerry<br />New York....31...leaning Kerry<br />No. Carolina.15..?<br />No. Dakota...3...leaning Bush<br />Ohio.........20..?<br />Oklahoma.....7...Bush<br />Oregon.......7...?<br />Pennsylvania.21..?<br />Rhode Island.4...Kerry<br />So. Carolina.8...Bush<br />So. Dakota...3...leaning Bush<br />Tennessee....11..leaning Bush<br />Texas........34..Bush<br />Utah.........5...Bush<br />Vermont......3...Kerry<br />Virginia.....13..Bush<br />Washington...11..?<br />West Virginia.5..?<br />Wisconsin....10..?<br />Wyoming......3...Bush<br /><br />That makes, by my thumbnail sketch.<br /><br />Bush......153<br />Kerry.....170<br />Unknown...200<br /><br /><br />270 electoral votes are needed to win.<br /><br />Can you make an unbiased prediction on your state?<br /><br />For the record, I am a supporter of George Bush, and have tried to be objective.

 

[snapperbait]

Re: The Electoral College 2004

Even though Republicans make up the majority of electoral votes from this state (Florida), it's just way too goofy to make a prediction...<br /><br />Examples.. We have a closet homosexual republican congressman (who'd probably support gay marrige)... Highly religious democrats that are anti abortion and who would support prayer in public school... It's just too wierd man...

 

[roscoe]

Re: The Electoral College 2004

Upper midwest and plains states are a real mess too. Most like Bush, but the farmers and unions have always been strong for the Dems, but individuals don't seem to like Kerry.<br /><br />Its gonna come down to a few votes, or a major event that will decide this election.<br /><br />I still think Cheney( although a very qualified and experienced man) should step aside, and Rice should be the Vp candidate. Rep just can't afford to miss the opportunity to get her in there.

 

[18rabbit]

Re: The Electoral College 2004

Roscoe – do you mean Condescending Rice? No way!!! She’s polished…she’s a marketing vehicle, a.k.a.: idiot, outside obsolete Russian politics. She doesn’t have a clue on mid-East or Asia policies or politics. Iraq is whatever it is but don’t let it distract your attention away from what is going on in Asia. I am thinking Asia is going to surface as a much more serious issue during the next term. If Bush wins, Rice should step down.<br /><br />But I agree with you about Cheney’s qualifications. Personally, I would prefer a Cheney/Bush ticket.<br /><br />Snapperbait – your state used to be accepted as a Republican electoral shoe-in. Now it is considered a swing state…it can go either way, no one knows until after the votes are counted...or chads discounted, ignored, repunched...whatever it is you guys down there do with them now.

 

[jinx]

Re: The Electoral College 2004

Nevada and Arizona used to be shoe ins for the GOP too. There are too many newcomers in them now to make a prediction.<br /><br />Pennsylvania is an odd duck, too. It has long been known for the "T" that voted GOP with Pittsburgh and Philly for the Dems. Many people mistakenly think of Pennsylvania as urban because of those two well known cities, but actually it has the largest rural population of any state in the Union.<br /><br />In any case, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and Michigan will be the players this year.<br /><br />As an aside, California gained 8 electoral votes since 2000! Increasingly, it is the 800 lb. gorilla.<br /><br />Jinx

 

[roscoe]

Re: The Electoral College 2004

Maybe so 18rabbit, but it would be nice to see what the opposition would say about a black female candidate. They wouldn't be able to talk about Cheney's health or Haliburton any more.<br /><br />I like to see candidates that don't have a lot of political baggage and favors to return (senators and congressmen). But its also nice to see what their voting/spending track record is.<br /><br />All I know, is that I will be ignoring almost all political banter for the next 5 months. Sometime in November, I will go to the voting booth and vote.

 

[Boomyal]

Re: The Electoral College 2004

Originally posted by roscoe:<br /> All I know, is that I will be ignoring almost all political banter for the next 5 months. Sometime in November, I will go to the voting booth and vote.

I hope you got a good set of earplugs roscoe. Methinks the din will become overpowering and you know where most of that will be coming from!