Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

Hurricane Earl was a Category 4, downgraded to a 3 this morning however, its a huge storm packing winds of 125 gusting to 160.

"Earl will track about 100 miles east of Cape Hatteras late Thursday night, then track north-northeastward passing about 70 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts Friday night before potentially tracking into the Bay of Fundy during the predawn hours of Saturday morning. It will not take much of a shift westward to bring Earl across Cape Cod and eastern Maine.

This type of track will bring hurricane force winds to the outer banks of North Carolina for a while Thursday night with tropical storm force winds expected on Thursday night into Friday morning across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and coastal Maryland and Delaware.
Up here in New England, hurricane force winds are possible Friday night across Cape Cod and the islands and also across coastal Washington and coastal Hancock counties in Maine. Tropical Storm force winds are possible Friday night into Saturday morning across the rest of coastal New England.

For those of you in eastern North Carolina (especially the outer banks) and southeast Virginia today is the day to prepare for hurricane conditions. If your home is vulnerable to high winds or if you live in a storm surge area, evacuate to a designated shelter or ride out the storm in the sturdy home of family or friends outside of evacuation zones. Regarding your home or business, cover all windows and doors with shutters or plywood. Move patio furniture and other loose objects indoors. Brace all exterior doors, including garage doors. If you need to make a trip to the hardware store, the grocery store or the gas station, do so this morning.(Crown Weather)"

Being on the receiving end of the residual effects from a hurricane I can tell you that even though you don't get a direct hit, you will have some nasty weather even if you are a couple of hundred miles inland. Check the National Hurricane Center for updates and wind/rain probabilities. Storms like this tend to wobble a bit as they near land so watch its track carefully.

Mandatory evacuation for Cape Hatteras has been issued as of this morning.

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

Hurricane Loop

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

good luck east coaster. hold on tight and may god be gentle with you, your families and your boats!

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

Prep is about complete on my personal stuff (house,boat,yard). We are moving the large training vessels at the Academy up the Hudson River to avoid the pounding they take exposed to a Northeast wind. If we get winds over 50 knots or tides 2+ feet above normal, I'll be riding it out onboard in the bay until conditions subside. Put the coffee on....

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

Here on the island of Cape Ann, Gloucester Mass., we have weathered many an ocean storm, from nor' easters to full blown Hurricanes. We were battered and survived by the storm of 1991 well known around here as, "The Perfect Storm," which had devastated the shoreline. Here most locals will be traveling the coast watching the 20-30 foot waves crash onto the granite rocky laden shore. And by Sunday morning one of the biggest bluefish tournaments on the north east coast will begin at 6:00AM known as the "Lanesville Bluefish Tournament," which has never been cancelled due to the weather conditions in the last 25-30 years. Boats have been swamped and bailed out, turned over and righted and never a loss of life in the tournament.

Why do people run out and buy perishables prior to a storm?

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

I never understood the whole bread and perishables thing. I understand water because I have had water mains break in storms...and batteries because power can go out...but I have enough random pre processed non perishable foods laying around to last me a while...in NC the same thing happens if snow is predicted...people FREAK out

Granted I'm a bit more concerned over a hurricane than some snow...especially since no one is at our family beach house to cane proof it but I don't foresee much happening due to our specific location (fingers crossed)

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

robcarync said:

I never understood the whole bread and perishables thing. I understand water because I have had water mains break in storms...and batteries because power can go out...but I have enough random pre processed non perishable foods laying around to last me a while...in NC the same thing happens if snow is predicted...people FREAK out

Granted I'm a bit more concerned over a hurricane than some snow...especially since no one is at our family beach house to cane proof it but I don't foresee much happening due to our specific location (fingers crossed)

Click to expand...

Dry and canned (have a manual can opener) foods and the way to go. One thing about food, after Hugo beat the heck out of us here in 1989, food was no problem. In fact, most would tell you the first week after the storm they never had eaten so well. All the steak, pork, shrimp and fish that was in the freezer had to be used in some way. The propane grills allowed neighborhood parties to go along with the cleanup efforts. Not that I want to see that sort of thing ever again.

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

I'm glad to see a few of you making preperations.

Anyone thats been on the receiving end of a Cat 2-3 hurricane of this size knows what to do.

Fly Rod, we have the die hards who have 'weathered' the storms here on our coast as well. During Hurricane Ike, they chose to stay based on their experience from storms in years gone by. Some of those people died, others (20,000 to be exact) never returned to the island. Keep in mind that a storm of this size 400-600 miles wide affects more than just the outlying coastal area due to the very large and powerful storm surge that can accompany it.

Additionally, y'all have a lot of trees nearer to the coast than we do. Expect power outages. Hopefully that will be your biggest threat and there will be no loss of life.

Since its a holiday weekend AND a mandatory evacuation order is in place for those along the coast who expect more impact, travel might be difficult if you are planning a trip. Just things to think about.

Having a few extra supplies is always a good idea since many stores could also be without power. The same goes for gas stations (unless they have a backup generator so they can pump gas), ATM's, etc. It's a holiday weekend so those who can remain open may have limited supplies.

Picking up extra canned goods and water never hurt anyone.

I evacuate over 200 staff and children and formulated our evacuation plan here about 4 years ago. I am just sharing my knowledge, first hand experience, and mother hen-ness.

My motto: Prepare for the worst, hope for the best!

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

LadyFish said:

I'm glad to see a few of you making preperations.

Anyone thats been on the receiving end of a Cat 2-3 hurricane of this size knows what to do.

Fly Rod, we have the die hards who have 'weathered' the storms here on our coast as well. During Hurricane Ike, they chose to stay based on their experience from storms in years gone by. Some of those people died, others (20,000 to be exact) never returned to the island. Keep in mind that a storm of this size 400-600 miles wide affects more than just the outlying coastal area due to the very large and powerful storm surge that can accompany it.

Additionally, y'all have a lot of trees nearer to the coast than we do. Expect power outages. Hopefully that will be your biggest threat and there will be no loss of life.

Since its a holiday weekend AND a mandatory evacuation order is in place for those along the coast who expect more impact, travel might be difficult if you are planning a trip. Just things to think about.

Having a few extra supplies is always a good idea since many stores could also be without power. The same goes for gas stations (unless they have a backup generator so they can pump gas), ATM's, etc. It's a holiday weekend so those who can remain open may have limited supplies.

Picking up extra canned goods and water never hurt anyone.

I evacuate over 200 staff and children and formulated our evacuation plan here about 4 years ago. I am just sharing my knowledge, first hand experience, and mother hen-ness.

My motto: Prepare for the worst, hope for the best!

Click to expand...

Never mind the preach'n LF re-post some of your after pic's from the last Hurricane you and the drunk'n pirate recovered from. That will get their attention.

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

A sobering reminder of September 13, 2008, Galveston Island, Texas (Hurricane Ike) Category 2

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

LadyFish said:

I'm glad to see a few of you making preperations.

Anyone thats been on the receiving end of a Cat 2-3 hurricane of this size knows what to do.

Fly Rod, we have the die hards who have 'weathered' the storms here on our coast as well. During Hurricane Ike, they chose to stay based on their experience from storms in years gone by. Some of those people died, others (20,000 to be exact) never returned to the island. Keep in mind that a storm of this size 400-600 miles wide affects more than just the outlying coastal area due to the very large and powerful storm surge that can accompany it.

Additionally, y'all have a lot of trees nearer to the coast than we do. Expect power outages. Hopefully that will be your biggest threat and there will be no loss of life.

Since its a holiday weekend AND a mandatory evacuation order is in place for those along the coast who expect more impact, travel might be difficult if you are planning a trip. Just things to think about.

Having a few extra supplies is always a good idea since many stores could also be without power. The same goes for gas stations (unless they have a backup generator so they can pump gas), ATM's, etc. It's a holiday weekend so those who can remain open may have limited supplies.

Picking up extra canned goods and water never hurt anyone.

I evacuate over 200 staff and children and formulated our evacuation plan here about 4 years ago. I am just sharing my knowledge, first hand experience, and mother hen-ness.

My motto: Prepare for the worst, hope for the best!

Click to expand...

You bring up some very good points. I'm prepared, 5 bottles of propane, plenty of canned foods and plenty of water.

Talk about devastation, watched a documentary of the 1938 hurricane of the Florida Keys.

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

I saw that same one Fly Rod. Thank God building codes have changed and technology makes it easier and quicker to predict and get warnings out to people.

What happened here is that it was only a Category 2 storm. Our die hards lived through Cat 2's before. Their experience was that it didn't do much damage. The shear size of Hurricane Ike is why we had an incredible storm surge. Our storm surge was over 20' in one area, we had 14' where we live.

Hurricane Ike, although a Cat 2 produced a storm surge of a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane. The Saffir Simson scale no longer shows storm surge associated with categories because of this Cat 2 storm. When a storm that is over 600 miles wide makes its way across so much water uninterupted by land, it pushes a lot of water. Many here didn't listen to the warnings. Like Cape Hatteras, we are a barrier reef island.

That particular storm was a HUGE learning opportunity for many islanders and many things have changed since then for the better.

Fingers and toes crossed here that out of all the times weather forecasters are wrong, this is one of them.

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

Going to pull the boat out now. hoping for the best while preparing for the worst.

I'm up on the bay side of the Eastern shore and it's the surge that I'm most concerned with. The tide at the pungoteague creek is low @ 2:30 Am Friday which is when Earl should be going by. Also the western side should push water out of the Chesapeake as it passes.

Take care everyone who needs to and thanks for the concern from the rest

Brent

Boy that sat pic looks huge Ladyfish. Thanks, it scares me a little. More prep to do!

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

Here is a link to an animated image of the storms track.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/sate...1070_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

Just heard it's been upgraded to a cat 4 again.

Be safe all.

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

Here's a link to a meterologist I've been following for many years and trust. He's out of Maine but used to fly one of the Hurricane Hunters.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Be safe.

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

We are well stocked with water, fuel, battery's etc. The boat is going in the garage tonight, and the patio gear is being put away today. Nothing expected to hit until Friday evening but better do this early than be late with preparations. Hoping it will swing to the east so we would be spared a direct hit.

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

Good job HD. After doing some reading this morning there is a strong possibility that the storm could actually wobbly in a more westward direction based on the intensity area of the eyewall.

Here's another very good meterologist's forecast:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

Here's a good link for tracking and intensity:

http://www.stormpulse.com/

Turn the forecast model on in the upper right hand corner of the page. The track without it is combination of all of the rest of the predictions.

Re: Heads-up East Coasters (Hurricane Earl)

http://forums.iboats.com/tropical/tracking/at201007.html#a_topad
Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on September 02, 2010

...Intense Hurricane Earl continues on a north-northwestwardtrack...expected to pass near the Outer Banks tonight...

summary of 800 am EDT...1200 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...30.1n 74.8wabout 355 mi...575 km S of Cape Hatteras North Carolinaabout 820 mi...1315 km SSW of Nantucket Massachusettsmaximum sustained winds...145 mph...230 km/hrpresent movement...NNW or 330 degrees at 18 mph...30 km/hrminimum central pressure...932 mb...27.52 inches

watches and warnings--------------------changes with this advisory...
None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Bogue Inlet North Carolina northeastward to the NorthCarolina/Virginia border including the Pamlico and Albemarlesounds.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape HenlopenDelaware.* Westport to Plymouth Massachusetts...including MarthasVineyard and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Cape Fear to west of Bogue Inlet North Carolina.* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Sandy Hook NewJersey...including Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach and the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.* The coast of Long Island New York from Fire Island Inlet northward and eastward to Port Jefferson Harbor.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...* Sandy Hook New Jersey to Woods Hole Massachusetts...including Block Island and Long Island Sound.* The coast of Long Island New York west of Fire Island Inlet and Port Jefferson Harbor.* North of Plymouth Massachusetts to Eastport Maine.* The coast of Nova Scotia from port Maitland to Medway Harbour.

For storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States...please monitor products issued by your Nationalmeteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook------------------------------at 800 am EDT...1200 UTC...the eye of Hurricane Earl was locatednear latitude 30.1 north...longitude 74.8 West. Earl is moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr but a turn towardthe north is expected soon. A turn toward the north-northeast andan increase in forward speed is expected on Friday. On the forecast track...the center of Earl will pass near the North Carolina Outer Banks tonight...and be very near southeastern New England Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph...230 km/hr...withhigher gusts. Earl is a category four hurricane on theSaffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. A gradual weakening is expected to start later today...but Earl is expected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) when it passes near the Outer Banks.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km...fromthe center...and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230miles...370 km.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the hurricane hunterdata is 932 mb...27.52 inches.

Hazards affecting land
-------winds...tropical-storm-force winds are expected to reach the NorthCarolina coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Even ifthe center of Earl remains offshore...hurricane force winds are expected to occur on the Outer Banks by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds will likely reach the coast from Virginia northward to New Jersey by late Thursday night or early Friday.

Storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level within the Hurricane Warning area and the lower Chesapeake Bay. Elsewhere within the Tropical Storm Warning area...storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Rainfall...accumulations of 2 to 4 inches...with isolatedmaximum amounts of 6 inches...are expected over portions of eastern North Carolina including the Outer Banks. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible farther to the north along the immediate mid-Atlantic coast.

Surf...large swells from Earl will continue to affect the Bahamasand the East Coast of the United States through Friday. Theses wells will likely cause dangerous surf conditions and ripcurrents.

Next advisory-------------next complete advisory...1100 am EDT.
$$Forecaster Avila