I am in the middle of this same project on my 1986 V6 Special. I have everything taken apart and I am working on removing a couple of broken fasteners before I order my parts and begin reassembly.
First off, you will hear a click and feel the shifter index even if the shaft is broken. There is a spring loaded ball detent in the that acts on the top of the shifter, you can see it in this pic.
Second, here is what the shaft looks like when it is out.
and here is a closeup of the area that will rot out first.
It turns out that mine was not too far gone. Pulling the lower unit does notjing to give you a better look at the shaft but you can get a glimpse of the problem area by looking for it right around where the lower motor mounts bolt up to the leg. There is a small opening there where you can see part of the shaft. If you just want a couple of years then there was a fix posted on another board where a guy epoxied on a piece of SS tube to repair a broken shaft. Now, this does require that your shaft must already be in two pieces first.
If you want to do the teardown and replace the shaft I have pictures and details if you're interested.
Steve P.