Bondo, you are reading more into this than what was stated.
I didn't state that a block will freeze at 38F. It will not.
I stated that if the (Ambient Air) Temperature was below 38F it is possible for (Objects) to Freeze.
I could have been more specific.
36 to 34 is more realistic. But if the forecast is calling for 38, the risk of freezing begins to become possible.
I am not saying that at 38 the lake is going to freeze over, Just that frost on the pumpkins (and your boat) is a possibility.
We have all noticed frost with the temperature above 32 by some margin.
That frost is Ice and it is below 32. You will only see frost on clear nights due to the cooling effect of the sky.
Freezing water with air temperature above 32 is common.
Any evening you notice Dew on the grass, the same effect is in play.
The grass has cooled far enough below the air to reach the dew-point and the water in the air begins to precipitate out.
The grass is significantly colder than the air.
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If the BLOCK, Not the Ambient Air, is at 31.9F it IS frozen! However long it takes to reach 31.9 is immaterial. It is frozen at 31.9.
There is a misconception that right at the freeze point, the ice is still soft and will not do any damage and that it will need to get into the lower 20's before it becomes hard enough to freeze the block.
Water expands volume by ~8.4% just as it freezes and contracts back to ~8.2% at 20F.
You get some small relief but the damage is already done.
Just to be complete, while the Volume expands by ~8.4% the linear dimension change is only 2.9%.
Your 1 inch water jacket gets pushed out .029 inches, not .084.
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The weather for the next few day here is calling for 70 degree days and 40 degree clear nights.
I will record the temperature of the block in my covered boat, and the outside air temperature for the next few days and present the graphs here.