There is a reason why Merc OMC and Volvo recommended straight weights vs multi Vis oils. Even with only 20-30 hrs on my engine the straight 40 Delo sheared to a high 30. If I used 30 and the same thing happened it might have been in the high 20 range. The Merc 25/40 was still a 40.
I think that if we really had a number of conventional 10w/30-40 analyses I bet a fair number would shear down one grade. Just saying Id like to see some relatively scientific results.
I think it's more because automotive engines benefit from a multi-grade since they operate in FAR larger temp-swing environments.
Start up a car or truck in a -25F cold soaked condition with a straight 30 or 40 (or even 25W40) and the oil will be like tar!
Even with a 20W straight wt, while you have might oil pressure at the gage, it's likely not flowing anywhere it's needed any time soon! (you'd be running the bearings essentially "dry" for a time )
I am not sure you can use the oil analysis visc numbers all that accurately with a marine engine though . It appears that the test (ASTM D5481 - 13) is performed at 150C which is might be pretty common in an engine with a continuous block temp of say 230F (110C) ............Like a truck pulling a load up a long hill..................
No marine engine ever has a block temp of 230F. (unless you interrupt raw water flow..........then alarms are blaring and it's an emergency!)
I would expect that the peak oil temps in any recreational marine stern-drive engine are considerably less than 150C (~300F) on a continuous basis.
So even if you did have an oil with a resultant visc in the high 20's @150C (according to the analysis) , the viscosity at the actual oil temp in the engine would likely be higher because the oil is cooler.
So you would still be 'ok' using a 5W-30 (or other multi) (certainly any synthetic 5W-30 etc) Probably like all the anecdotal "evidence" seems to suggest...........